How Much Should You Allow for Absence Cover in a Bid?

Every cleaning bid carries an absence cover allowance whether anyone wrote it down or not. Somebody will be off sick and the hours still have to be delivered. The question is not whether to price it. It is how much one absent hour really costs and that depends on two decisions most bids never state.

This blog is a small research paper. One question. The published data that answers it. The finding. And what it means for the person pricing the next contract. Every figure comes from a named source or is calculated in a numbered table.

Key Findings#

• £0.22 to £0.73 an hour. At the ONS absence rate of 2.9 per cent for elementary occupations in 2024 [1] the cover a bid needs runs from £0.22 to £0.73 per contracted hour depending on sick pay policy and cover route [2].
• Policy moves it more than the rate. Sick pay and cover route move the allowance 3.3 times. Absence rates from 2.0 to 4.0 per cent across UK workers move it 2 times [3].
• More than a third of the margin. On an illustrative contract of 24960 hours a year a bid that allows the £0.37 floor when the real cost is £0.73 leaves £9048 a year unpriced. That is 37.7 per cent of a £24000 margin [4][5].
• Day one SSP added £5.82 to short absences. Under an SSP only policy each hour in the first three days of an absence now costs £5.82 more than before 6 April 2026 [6].
• Part timers are off more. Part time workers had an absence rate of 2.8 per cent in 2025 against 1.9 per cent for full time [3]. In cleaning activities 67 per cent of workers are part time [7].

1. The Question#

How much should a cleaning bid allow for absence cover per contracted hour and what decides the answer?

The rate is the easy half. The ONS puts UK sickness absence at 2.0 per cent of working hours in 2025 and 4.0 per cent for workers with a long term health condition [3]. Elementary occupations which include cleaning ran at 2.9 per cent in 2024 [1]. The hard half is what each absent hour costs. That turns on two choices. What the absent operative is paid. And who covers the shift.

2. The Data and the Method#

Table 1. Sources used and what each one answers

We use the illustrative contract from the Operify AI series. 480 contracted hours a week or 24960 a year at a charge of £19.23 an hour with a 5 per cent margin of £24000 [4]. At 2.9 per cent that contract loses 723.8 hours a year to sickness or about 14 hours a week.

A cover hour costs £16.81 as planned relief and £25.21 as overtime at time and a half [8]. Both are built from the National Living Wage and employer NI and pension and holiday accrual [9][10][11]. The absent operative on 25 hours a week receives either full contractual sick pay or SSP of £123.25 a week which is £4.93 an hour [2]. Under SSP only the employer saves £7.78 of wage on each absent hour plus the NI and pension on it which makes £9.18. Holiday keeps building up during sick leave so none of it is saved [12].

3. What the Data Shows#

3.1 What One Absent Hour Really Costs#

Table 2. Absence cover allowance on the illustrative contract at 2.9 per cent

Calculated. Net cost is the cover hour less any wage and on cost saved on the absent operative. A year is 723.8 absent hours times the net cost. Margin is £24000 on the illustrative contract.

The series floor of £0.37 sits in the middle of the range. It is too high for a contractor that pays SSP only and covers with planned relief. It is half the real figure for a contractor that pays full sick pay and fills gaps with overtime. In that case the bid leaves £9048 a year unpriced on this contract which is 37.7 per cent of the margin.

3.2 The Rate Matters Less Than the Policy#

Table 3. Allowance per contracted hour across published absence rates

Calculated. Lowest is SSP only with planned relief. Highest is full sick pay with overtime. Hours are on the 24960 hour contract.

Doubling the absence rate from 2.0 to 4.0 per cent doubles the allowance. Switching from SSP with relief to full sick pay with overtime multiplies it by 3.3 at any rate. The policy line in the bid matters more than the rate line.

3.3 The April 2026 Change to Statutory Sick Pay#

Before 6 April 2026 SSP was not paid for the first three days of an absence. Since then it is paid from the first day [6]. Under an SSP only policy the wage saved on a waiting day hour used to be the full £15.00 of wage and on costs. Now it is £9.18. Every hour in the first three days of an absence therefore costs £5.82 more than it did. Short absences are common. Minor illnesses were the most frequent reason for absence in 2025 at 30.4 per cent of occurrences [3].

3.4 The Cheapest Choice Is the One That Loses Contracts#

If cover fails the client has still paid £19.23 for the hour [4]. Under SSP only the contractor saves £9.18 on the absent operative so an uncovered hour loses £10.05 of charge. Overtime cover costs £16.03. On paper leaving the hour empty is cheaper. In practice it is how contracts are lost at renewal because the gap shows up as service that was invoiced and not delivered.

4. What It Means for a Contractor#

Write the policy into the bid before the number.

• State the sick pay policy. SSP only and full sick pay produce allowances that differ by more than double.
• Plan the cover route. A relief pool costs £16.81 an hour and overtime £25.21.
• Use the right rate. A mostly part time workforce sits nearer 2.8 per cent than the 2.0 per cent UK average.
• Price the mix. If one hour in three goes to overtime price one hour in three at overtime.
• Never price the empty hour. An uncovered hour looks cheap and costs the contract.
• Measure it after award. The rate in the bid should be checked against real absence every month.

Cover starts in rostering. A shift pattern with named relief built in moves cover away from overtime. In Operify AI the scheduling and roster module sends open shifts to a claims pool so cover is recorded and working time limits are checked. The Living AI module flags the task that should have started an hour ago. And time and attendance captured at the point of work shows the real absence rate against the rate in the bid. Without that record the gap becomes under delivery and a missed SLA rather than a known cost.

5. What This Does Not Show#

• The contract is illustrative. 480 hours a week at £19.23 is a model and not a customer.
• Only sickness is modelled. Vacancy gaps and no shows and training days add further cover hours.
• Agency cover is not costed. Agency rates vary by supplier and usually sit above relief.
• SSP is shown for a 25 hour operative. Lower earners get 80 per cent of their earnings where that is less than £123.25.
• ONS rates are national. Your own absence record is a better basis where you have one.

6. Conclusion#

There is no single right absence allowance. At the 2.9 per cent rate it runs from £0.22 to £0.73 an hour and the spread comes from the sick pay policy and the cover route rather than the rate itself.

A bid that states both and prices both carries the real cost. A bid that applies one flat figure is right for one kind of contractor and wrong for the rest. On a 24960 hour contract the wrong figure can cost more than a third of the margin.

References#

[1] Office for National Statistics. Sickness absence in the UK labour market 2023 and 2024. Released 4 June 2025. Elementary occupations 2.9 per cent in 2024. Available at ONS sickness absence 2023 and 2024 (accessed October 2026).

[2] UK Government. Statutory Sick Pay. What you will get. £123.25 a week or 80 per cent of normal weekly earnings whichever is lower. Available at Statutory Sick Pay rates (accessed October 2026).

[3] Office for National Statistics. Sickness absence in the UK labour market 2025. Released 1 May 2026. 2.0 per cent overall. 2.8 per cent part time and 1.9 per cent full time. 4.0 per cent with a long term health condition. Minor illnesses 30.4 per cent of occurrences. Available at ONS sickness absence 2025 (accessed October 2026).

[4] Operify AI. CAI/GR/001/OPI. Losing Money in Plain Sight. Guides and Research series. Self citation. Illustrative contract of 24960 hours a year at a charge of £19.23 an hour with a 5 per cent margin. Model.

[5] Operify AI. CAI/GR/003/OPI. The Loaded Cost of an Operative Hour 2026. Guides and Research series. Self citation. Absence cover floor of 2.9 per cent of the wage which is £0.37 an hour. Calculation.

[6] UK Government. Millions of workers get new access to sick pay and parental leave. Published 7 April 2026. SSP paid from the first day of sickness absence from 6 April 2026. Available at SSP reform announcement (accessed October 2026).

[7] British Cleaning Council. Research Report 2026. 67 per cent of workers in cleaning activities work part time. Available at British Cleaning Council Research Report 2026 (accessed October 2026).

[8] Operify AI. CAI/GR/006/OPI. Twenty Four Seven. Guides and Research series. Self citation. Marginal cover hour of £16.81 and overtime at time and a half of £25.21 at April 2026 rates. Calculation.

[9] UK Government. National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates. £12.71 an hour from April 2026. Available at National Living Wage rates (accessed October 2026).

[10] HMRC. Rates and thresholds for employers 2026 to 2027. Employer rate of 15 per cent above £5000 a year. Available at rates and thresholds for employers (accessed October 2026).

[11] The Pensions Regulator. Making contributions to your pension scheme. Minimum employer contribution of 3 per cent of qualifying earnings. Available at pension contributions guidance (accessed October 2026).

[12] UK Government. Holiday pay the basics. Workers build up holiday entitlement while off work sick. Available at holiday pay the basics (accessed October 2026).

About Operify AI#

We sell tender costing and rostering software. That is a commercial interest in this finding and readers should weigh it. Two things constrain it. Every rate is published and named so any reader can rerun the arithmetic. Section 5 states what the model does not show.

Operify AI is operated by Codedevza AI Ltd company number 16485057. Correspondence to hello@operifyai.co.uk.